Article amb blocs

Although the recovery of the euro area has not taken off as expected, the financial stability and expansive policies of the European Central Bank have driven Catalan economic activity. Another key factor is that credit has begun to become more available, in addition to a scenario of minimum oil prices and a euro depreciated against the dollar. This favourable panorama forms the framework of the new prospects, which also take into account the gradual recovery of the euro area and the increase in world trade.

Based on these assumptions, the Catalan economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2015, and may even exceed this figure. With a view to 2016, growth is expected to continue strong, but will see a slowdown more consistent with the economic fundamentals.

In 2015 the Catalan economy will grow due to a new acceleration of the internal demand. In 2016 growth of the internal demand will slow whereas the external balance will recover positive contribution to growth.

According to current forecasts, growth in private consumption expenditure will reach a variation rate of 3.4% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016. This boost is due to three factors: firstly, the fact that, despite the growth in 2014, consumption still stands well below that recorded before the crisis; secondly, job creation and the increase in consumer confidence and lastly, the progressive improvement of credit conditions, low inflation and increase in financial wealth for families as a whole.

Forecasts for external demand for the year 2015 are based on a 5.3% growth in the export of goods and services which may even be higher if the dynamic of the first months of the year continue, based on exports of goods and foreign tourism. The evolution of imports stands at 7.6%, slightly below the increase of the previous year. For 2016, exports are expected to grow by 5.1%, and imports by 6.2%.

It should be noted that the dynamics of Catalan exports for the year 2015 exceeds the forecasts for world trade, while those for 2016 are closer to these estimates, but remain slightly above them.

External demand will make a slight negative contribution to growth in 2015, whilst it will contribute 0.3 to growth in 2016. It should be remembered that the contribution of external demand to the Catalan GDP is disaggregated into the balance with overseas and the balance with the rest of Spain. In view of the forecasts of international trade flows, the contribution of the foreign trade to GDP will be -0.4 in 2015 and -0.1 in 2016. The contribution of trade flows with the rest of Spain will be positive in both years: 0.3 in 2015 and 0.4 in 2016.

In parallel with the economic recovery, job creation remains strong. Current forecasts put net full-time job creation at 3% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016, consistent with the estimated dynamic of the economy and productivity. The unemployment rate will, according to the scenario for the evolution of employment and the active population, decrease to 18.3% in 2015 and to 16.4% in 2016.

This document is accompanied by an annex which includes a table showing the prospects of the Catalan economy for 2015 and 2016